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10 – 13 January 2012
Vancouver, BC, Canada
EduMine UBCICL ICL

Valuation of Mineral Projects based on Technical and Financial Modelling


by Professor Dennis Buchanan

COURSE DETAILS

Provisional Schedule

Day 1 – Financial Modelling

Time Session
08.15 – 08.45

Registration

08:45 – 09:00

Welcome and Profile of Participants

09.00 – 10.00

1.1 Financial Modelling.

Discounted cash flows. Time value of money. Discount rates. Indicators of economic viability (NPV, IRR and payback). Maximum cash exposure. Sensitivity analysis. Rate of production, effect of changing cut-off grade and optimisation of NPV.

10.00 – 11.00

1.2 Workshop.

DCF exercise based on annuity tables. Review of spreadsheet-based solution.

11.00 – 11.30

Break

11.30 – 13.00

1.3 Demonstration of IC-MinEval.

Case history of gold operation. Setting up base case.

13.00 – 14.00

Lunch

14.30 – 15.30

1.4 Analysis of Risk and Uncertainty.

Treatment of multivariant systems. Application to Monte Carlo simulation techniques.

15.30 – 15.45

Break

15.45 – 17.00

1.5 Tax and Company Structure.

Tax models. Taxation agreements. Carry forward provisions. EPT. Royalties. Depreciation allowances. Management accounts and audits.

Day 2 – Technical Appraisal

Time Session
09:00 – 10:00

2.1 Value Creation in Mineral Projects

The Life Cycle of mineral projects. Drivers. Stages of planning and execution. Relationship between risk and valuation.

10.00 – 11.00

2.2 Feasibility Studies

Role of a prefeasibility study. Scope of a full technical feasibility study. Role in raising equity. Role in securing debt finance. Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Management contracts.

11.00 – 11.30

Break

11.30 – 13.00

2.3 Resource Estimation

Concepts of geological continuity. Resource block estimates

13.00 – 14.00

Lunch

14.00 – 15.30

2.4 Resource Estimation

Geostatistics. Cut-off grades. Reserve and resource definitions. Interface between envelopes of mineralization, resource blocks and mine design.

15.30 – 15.45

Break

15.45 – 17.00

2.5 Scale of Mining

Relationship between costs and scale of mining. Valuation of long life projects.

Key differences between the type of project that would be material to a major compared to the junior sector.

Day 3 – Technical and Financial Modelling

Time Session
09:00 – 10:00

3.1 Scenario Analysis – Base Metals

Illustration of extractive metallurgy through the hydrometallurgy and pyrometallurgy of copper ores. Oxide versus sulphide ores. Solvent extraction and electro-winning. Net Smelter Returns. Negotiating an off-take agreement for a project that produces a polymetallic concentrate

10:00 – 11:00

3.2 Project Finance

Case history of an open pit copper project. Relationship between cost of debt, taxation, Balance Sheet, profit and Loss account and cash flow. Calculating the cost of debt and equity. Determining the weighted average cost of capital and optimum level of gearing.

11.00 – 11.30

Break

11.30 – 13.00

3.3 Scenario Analysis – Base Metals

Workshop session. – Underground Operation.

Engineering concepts behind block caving mining method. Technical risks of the side-wall failure in the open pit on dilution in subsequent block caving operations. Implications for the reserve tail and project finance. Multi-partner scenario analysis – determining relative return for different stakeholders as a function of investment contribution.

13.00 – 14.00

Lunch

14.00 – 15.00

3.4 Scenario Analysis – Industrial Minerals

Workshop session. – Iron ore.

Chemistry of primary minerals. Price based on dry metric tonne units as a function of iron content. Product specifications and penalties. Beneficiation and yields as a function of iron content. Infrastructure – Power, transport of ore (rail and slurry pumping) and port facilities. Optimisation of NPV against yield.

15.30 – 15.45

Break

15.45 – 17.00

3.5 Scenario Analysis – Industrial Minerals

Workshop session. – Mineral Sands

Mineralogy of mineral sands. Mining methods, environmental impact and optimisation of NPV.

Day 4 – Scenario Analysis. Industrial Minerals

Time Session
09:00 – 10:00

4.1 Scenario Analysis – Industrial Minerals

Workshop session. – Diamonds

Geological settings and pricing. Alluvial deposit case history. Evaluation of projects. Instability of DCF models. Primary kimberlitic projects

10:00 – 11:00

4.2 Scenario Analysis – Industrial Minerals

Workshop session. – Bauxite Value chain from bauxite through to alumina and then aluminium. Environmental impact of bauxite mining.

11.00 – 11.30

Break

11.30 – 13.00

4.3 Environmental Review.

Site visits. Impact assessment. Baseline conditions, impacts and mitigation. Management and monitoring.

13.00 – 14.00

Lunch

14.00 – 15.30

4.4 Scenario Analysis - Energy

Workshop session. – Coal

Geology and classification. Evaluation. Coking Coal. Role of volumetrics in setting up a financial model.

15.30 – 15.45

Break

15.45 – 17.00

4.5 Surface coal operations.

Justification of an investment in equipment. Set up IC-CoalEval open pit scenario. Funding based on debt and equity. Sensitivity analysis.

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